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Prediction for CME (2026-01-01T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-01T19:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43719/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the NNE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-01-01T19:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is currently not visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap which began at 2026-01-01T04:38Z. The source of this event is a C6.2 flare from AR 14324 (N24E01) seen in SDO AIA 131 peaking at 2026-01-01T17:59Z. A wide region of dimming and field line opening is also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, followed by post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 131 and 193. | Arrival Information: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components (B_t: approx. 5.7nT to 9.5nT , B_x: approx. -2.6nT to -1.8nT , B_y: -4.6nT to -6.6nT , B_z: -1.5nT to -6.2nT) along with increases in temperature (approx. 52kK to 182kK), density (approx. 0.23 p/cc to 2.36 p/cc) and speed (approx. 425km/s to 502km/s). This IPS signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-01-01T19:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T20:41Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-04T21:23Z (-13.68h, +10.93h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

*** CCOR1 ***
Time of Launch: 2026/01/01 18:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 00:50Z; 20.0Rsun; N Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 02:30Z; 20.0Rsun; S Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 01:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 6:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~10.91
Travel Time: ~10.91 * 6:50 = 74:33

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-04T21:23Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 75%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/01/02 01:30Z

Lead Time: 67.08 hour(s)
Difference: -0.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-01-02T01:36Z

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